With less than nine months before a politically bruising battle in the November midterm elections, the realities of a one-seat majority are bearing down on the House GOP.

Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La. — and by extension, President Donald Trump — faced back-to-back losses on the House floor last week after a small group of GOP rebels joined Democrats in an effort to curb Trump’s unilateral tariff authority.

It’s part of a growing trend that comes with a razor-thin House majority, and moderates making a choice between appealing to their battleground district voters and following the president in a year when history dictates the opposing party will fare better in the coming elections.

‘Getting things done in Washington can be tough enough as it is,’ veteran GOP strategist Doug Heye told Fox News Digital. ‘Add to that a super slim majority and the shortened legislative calendar of an election year, and it’s tough to see much happening legislatively through the rest of the year.’

Last Tuesday, House GOP leaders tried to insert language into an unrelated procedural vote aimed at blocking Democrats from forcing consideration of a bill aimed at limiting Trump’s ability to levy tariffs on Canada without consent from Congress.

That failed, however, after three Republicans joined Democrats in sinking that procedural vote — Reps. Kevin Kiley, R-Calif., Don Bacon, R-Neb., and Thomas Massie, R-Ky.

‘I think it was not unexpected, and certainly we’ve got to find a new course to chart now,’ one House Republican granted anonymity to speak freely told Fox News Digital.

‘This is going to change the dynamics of the type of legislation we’re going to see, and the type of political posturing the Democrats are going to do the next nine months. So we’ve got to come up with a better strategy.’

But Republicans who spoke with Fox News Digital largely did not blame Johnson, arguing he was doing his best with the circumstances in front of him. Instead, much frustration was aimed at their fellow GOP lawmakers who dissented.

The move not only paved the way for a vote on Trump’s Canada tariffs, but opened the door to allowing Democrats to force a vote on tariffs targeting other countries as well.

‘A lot of people were disappointed with how that went, with the actors who voted no’ rather than House leadership, a second House Republican said.

They pointed out that the following day would bring a vote on Trump’s tariffs themselves — a politically tricky situation for people in vulnerable seats.

‘I get the overall idea about tariffs. That’s not the vehicle to vote no on and put a lot of our moderates in jeopardy, and that’s exactly what happened,’ the second GOP lawmaker said.

A third House Republican said there was ‘frustration that they aren’t playing team ball like they used to, and we need them to.’

But not everyone agreed. Rep. Eli Crane, R-Ariz., a member of the conservative House Freedom Caucus, told Fox News Digital, ‘I actually like when they put bills on the floor, even if they don’t have the votes…it gives the American people a chance to see where their representatives stand. And far too often, the calculus is, well, we’re not gonna put it on the floor if we don’t think it has the votes.’

‘A lot of the American people don’t even know where their reps stand, because this whole place is designed to shield members from taking votes,’ Crane said.

He added of Johnson’s leadership, ‘I think it’s one of the hardest jobs you can have. I’ve been critical of the speaker in the past, but what he’s working with, I think he’s doing a good job.’

Democrats did successfully force a vote on ending Trump’s emergency at the northern border the following day, which if passed in the Senate and signed into law would effectively roll back his Canada tariffs. 

Three more Republicans — Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick, R-Pa., Jeff Hurd, R-Colo., and Dan Newhouse, R-Wash. — joined the original trio in voting to pass the measure, even despite Trump vowing political ‘consequences’ for those who dissented.

It’s almost certain that Trump would veto the resolution if it gets to his desk, but it’s an example of a situation that is increasingly likely to happen as the midterms draw closer.

Bacon and Newhouse, for example, are not running for re-election. Fitzpatrick and Hurd are running in battleground districts where their independence from the party line could be critical to their survival — and Republicans’ overall chances of keeping the House.

Trump is already targeting Massie with a primary challenge, and Kiley has not yet said what his plans are for November after California Democrats badly disadvantaged him with a new congressional map.

‘I think you’re going to see some moderate Republicans try to distinguish themselves as being independent voters or independent thinkers … and this is a way to do it,’ John Feehery of EFB Advocacy, who served as press secretary to former Republican House Speaker Dennis J. Hastert, told Fox News Digital.

‘And the tariffs are not uniformly popular amongst the Republican conference. I mean, most Republicans would probably want to vote with those guys. But they don’t want to undermine the president as he’s negotiating.’

Republicans are currently dealing with a one-seat majority until mid-March, when a special election for the seat vacated by former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., is likely to get another GOP lawmaker into the House.

But the April race for a blue-leaning seat to replace New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherill could bring the margin back down. Republicans would then not likely see relief until August, when a special election will be held to replace late Rep. Doug LaMalfa, R-Calif.

And Feehery said Democrats’ unwillingness to work with Trump will likely keep much of the president’s agenda from succeeding in Congress this year.

‘It doesn’t look to me like the Democrats have any interest in giving Trump any kind of legislative victory, so that makes it very difficult. I mean, [House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y.], he doesn’t really want to work with Trump at all, and so it’s going to pretty much scale back the ability for Republicans to get much done for the rest of the year,’ he said.

‘And the other situation is that the Senate, they’re not going to get 60 votes for a lot of things, so it just makes the agenda itself pretty slim.’

Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Ariz., has confirmed he will ‘seriously consider’ a run for president in 2028, opening the door to a potential White House bid.

Kelly’s comments to the BBC Feb. 16 came as he remains locked in a legal and political battle with the Trump administration.

In an interview, the retired Navy captain and former astronaut made clear he has not yet decided whether to launch a campaign but confirmed the idea is under consideration.

‘I have people talk to me about it all the time, but we have an election in 2026 that I’m really worried about. We’ve got to get through that first. I will make a decision.’

Kelly emphasized that any choice would involve discussions with his wife, Gabrielle Giffords, their daughters and his identical twin brother, also a former astronaut.

‘You know, with my wife, Gabby, with my two daughters, and my brother, I have a twin brother who was also an astronaut. Think about for a second how this would affect him. We’re identical twins,’ he said.

‘So you know, I’ll seriously consider this, because we are in some seriously challenging times right now,’ Kelly added.

Kelly’s comments came within days of two major developments in his standoff with the administration.

As previously reported by Fox News Digital, a federal judge blocked the Pentagon from demoting him Feb. 12 over a controversial video about ‘illegal orders.’

A grand jury declined to indict him and five other Democratic lawmakers on seditious conspiracy charges.

The dispute is over a 90-second video Kelly recorded with fellow Democratic lawmakers reminding U.S. service members that they are not obligated to follow ‘illegal’ commands.

‘Our laws are clear,’ Kelly said in the clip. ‘You can refuse illegal orders.’

President Donald Trump had labeled the video ‘seditious behavior’ and suggested the lawmakers be arrested.

The Justice Department sought indictments, but a grand jury refused to bring charges.

War Secretary Pete Hegseth had also moved to initiate retirement-grade determination proceedings against Kelly, potentially reducing his rank as a retired Navy captain and cutting his retirement pay.

Kelly sued, arguing the action was unconstitutional retaliation for protected speech.

U.S. District Judge Richard Leon agreed to temporarily block the demotion, writing that the administration had likely violated Kelly’s First Amendment rights and warning against ‘shrinking the First Amendment liberties of retired service members.’ Hegseth has vowed to appeal.

‘This will be immediately appealed,’ Hesgeth wrote in the post. ‘Sedition is sedition, ‘Captain.’’

In the Feb. 17 interview with the BBC, Kelly also reflected on his career.

‘I don’t know if I would be the best person in this job. I am a lot different than most of these other 100 senators there are,’ he said.

‘I’m one of the very few engineers. I’m the only person with a graduate degree in engineering in the United States Senate. I’ve got combat experience that’s kind of rare,’ Kelly explained.

‘I spent 25 years in the military. I didn’t start out in some state legislature somewhere. I don’t think of myself as a politician. I’m a Navy pilot who was so fortunate and so lucky, in fact, that I had the opportunity to fly this incredible spaceship, you know, four times and back.’

Kelly also struck a note of humility about a possible White House run.

‘I never thought I’d find myself here. So I will obviously think about this. It’s a serious decision. I just haven’t made it yet, he added.

Fox News Digital has reached out to Kelly’s office for comment.

Senate Republicans say they’ve struggled to get out on the campaign trail ahead of the midterm elections — and Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., argues Democrats are to blame.

‘Their whole goal, and everything is to, you know, force us to stay around, force us to try and get members to take hard votes and just to tie people down so that they can’t be back campaigning,’ Thune told Fox News Digital.

Thune had just left a local furniture store in Sioux Falls, S.D., where he touted the economic benefits of the bill, which largely extended Trump’s tax cuts from his original 2017 tax bill, along with making tweaks to the tax code that lawmakers believe would directly benefit small businesses.

There, he noted that the owners of Montgomery’s told him, ‘If people had discretionary income out here, they spend it.’

That was the crux of the colossal bill Republicans rammed through Congress last year. In effect, it was a direct response to the pocketbook issues that largely drove the 2024 election cycle and propelled the GOP to a trifecta of federal control in Washington, D.C.

But time and again, Schumer and his caucus made it difficult for the GOP to get that message out, let alone leave the Capitol, Thune contended. Each day counts during campaign season, and canceling a travel plan or nixing an event can add up for Republicans seeking to stay in power.

The latest example is the now-four-day partial government shutdown, where an end doesn’t seem to be in sight as Senate Democrats and the White House engage in ongoing negotiations to fund the Department of Homeland Security (DHS).

While this closure hasn’t affected lawmakers’ travel plans — Thune has reminded the Senate to be ready at a moment’s notice should a deal be reached — the previous 43-day shutdown blew up any plans for lawmakers to get out and communicate with voters.

Then there was a carte blanche blockade against Trump’s nominees last year, too, that saw Thune cancel a portion of August recess. That time, particularly ahead of a midterm election cycle, is used by lawmakers to gin up early support for their reelection campaigns.

‘Right now for [Democrats], it’s just all about — everything’s all about politics and making it, you know, really hard for our incumbents who are running for reelection,’ Thune said.

Republicans see their ability to sell the ‘big, beautiful bill’ as crucial to their election survival in November.

And once again, the cost of living and how the Trump administration has dealt with inflation will yet again be a prominent factor in the upcoming election, Thune said.

‘I think most voters are, you know, especially the voters that are going to decide probably who controls the House and Senate after November, are going to be kitchen table-type, pocketbook … the bread and butter issues,’ Thune said. ‘They’re economic voters, and so inflation is going to matter, and having more money in their pockets is going to matter.’

An American was sentenced Tuesday to four years in jail in Russia for allegedly trying to fly out of an airport in Moscow with the stocks of Kalashnikov assault rifles in his suitcase, a report said. 

The unnamed U.S. citizen, who collects Kalashnikov weapons, did not make a customs declaration after purchasing two stocks and checking a suitcase containing the items at Moscow’s Vnukovo airport, Reuters reported, citing the RIA Novosti state news agency. 

He later was found guilty under an article of Russian criminal code relating to the smuggling of weapons, it added. 

Fox News Digital has reached out to the State Department for comment.

Russian state media is also claiming the American partially admitted guilt, according to Reuters. 

The State Department warns Americans not to travel to Russia ‘for any reason due to terrorism, unrest, wrongful detention and other risks.’

‘The U.S. Embassy in Moscow has limited ability to assist in the case of a detention of a U.S. citizen. There is no guarantee that the Russian government will grant the U.S. Embassy consular access to detained U.S. citizens,’ the State Department said. ‘U.S. citizens may serve their entire prison sentence without release. The risk of wrongful detention of U.S. citizens remains high. Even if a case is determined wrongful, there is no guarantee of release.’  

‘Russian officials often question and threaten U.S. citizens without reason. Russian security services have arrested U.S. citizens on false charges,’ it added. They have denied them fair treatment and convicted them without credible evidence. Russian authorities have opened questionable investigations against U.S. citizens for their religious activities.’ 

Former Biden White House press secretary Jen Psaki raised alarm recently about an international ‘web’ surrounding Jeffrey Epstein’s sex-trafficking case, echoing remarks from many Democrats who have seized on the politically expedient topic in the wake of the Department of Justice releasing Epstein’s unclassified case files.

‘It is Trump, yes. … But it is the wealthy, the elites, and basically every faction of the world,’ Psaki, a political analyst for MS Now, said in a video clip. ‘It’s global leaders. It’s people in the business sector. It is people in Hollywood probably, who knows. It is a bunch of people who think that they can get away with anything.’

Democrats have since last year claimed that Epstein’s case has newfound salience because Trump, once among Epstein’s many wealthy friends before Epstein was accused of trafficking underage girls, was, in their view, suspiciously dismissive of the files when he took office.

Republicans have countered, however, that Democrats had full access to the documents for four years under the Biden administration — when Psaki served as the chief White House spokesperson — and neither released them nor uncovered information damaging to Trump. Fox News Digital reached out to Psaki for comment.

Rep. Jamie Raskin, D-Md., ranking member of the House Judiciary Committee, told Fox News Digital claims of Democratic inconsistency ‘are seriously detached from reality’ and pointed to his own investigations dating back to 2019 into former Trump Labor Secretary Alex Acosta’s handling of a 2008 plea deal with Epstein.

Raskin argued the Democratic Party has not shifted, but rather that the Trump administration has.

‘Trump abruptly killed the ongoing federal investigation into Epstein’s co-conspirators when he took office,’ Raskin said, alleging the administration undertook a ‘massive redaction project’ to hide evidence of Trump’s and others’ ties to Epstein.

The DOJ in January released more than three million pages of files but signaled that another three million were withheld because they contained victim information or were protected by various privileges.

‘Democrats have always fought to support an investigation of Epstein’s co-conspirators,’ Raskin said. ‘We have always been on the side of full transparency and justice for the victims.’

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., has made similar remarks, saying, ‘All we want is full transparency, so that the American people can get the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth.’

The heightened Democratic push for transparency comes after years during which the party showed more intermittent interest in Epstein’s case, which some Democrats have attributed to the sensitivity of seeking information while Epstein associate Ghislaine Maxwell’s sex trafficking case was pending and while some of Epstein’s victims were pursuing litigation.

But the Democrats’ new, unified fixation on Epstein has come as Republicans have struggled to manage the issue, which has caused intra-party fractures.

The files became a political thorn for the administration after Attorney General Pam Bondi’s chaotic rollout last year of already-public files by the DOJ, which enraged a faction of Trump’s base who had been expecting new information.

The DOJ said at the time that it would not disclose further files because of court orders and victim privacy and said the department found no information that would warrant bringing charges against anyone else. In a turnabout, however, Bondi ordered a review, at Trump’s direction, of Epstein’s alleged connections to Democrats, including former President Bill Clinton.

The president, who was closely associated with Epstein but was never accused of any crimes related to him, also relented to months-long pressure to sign a transparency bill last year that ordered the DOJ to release all of its Epstein-related records within 30 days. Among the most vocal supporters of the bill was former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., which resulted in her highly public falling out with the president, whom she once fervently supported.

The Epstein saga has also plagued the administration because some of Trump’s allies, now in top roles in the DOJ, once promoted the existence of incriminating, nonpublic Epstein files, including a supposed list of sexual predators who were his clients. FBI Director Kash Patel, for instance, said in 2023 the government was hiding ‘Epstein’s list’ of ‘pedophiles.’ But the DOJ leaders failed to deliver on those claims upon taking office.

House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., meanwhile, faced accusations from Democrats that he kept the House in recess for about two months in the summer to avoid votes on Epstein transparency legislation. Johnson shot back that Democrats had, in his view, been lax on the Epstein case until Trump took office.

‘We’re not going to allow the Democrats to use this for political cover. They had four years,’ Johnson told reporters at the time. ‘Remember, the Biden administration held the Epstein files for four years and not a single one of these Democrats, or anyone in Congress, made any thought about that at all.’

The House Oversight Committee has also spurred infighting over how Epstein material has been handled, as it has been actively engaged in subpoenaing, reviewing, and releasing large batches of Epstein-related records from both the DOJ and Epstein’s estate.

Committee Republicans have said their Democratic counterparts ‘cherry-picked’ material to release, such as photos featuring Trump and Epstein, and that they ‘keep trying to create a fake hoax by being dishonest, deceptive, and shamelessly deranged.’